Energy Endurance Under Systemic Shock
Divergent Survival Pathways in East Asia During the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This policy brief examines energy endurance under systemic shock and compares divergent survival pathways in East Asia during the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict. It introduces the Energy Endurance & Survival Index (EESI) and links it to High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium (HPSE) and the Loss-of-Control Threshold (LoCT) to explain how Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan absorb, transmit, and approach systemic instability under sustained energy pressure.
Abstract
The U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict is transforming energy security from a problem of supply disruption into one of systemic endurance. Energy flows have not collapsed; instead, rising costs, buffer depletion, and structural dependency are progressively compressing resilience across import-dependent economies. This policy brief introduces the Energy Endurance & Survival Index (EESI) and situates it within a broader framework linking High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium (HPSE) and the Loss-of-Control Threshold (LoCT). Using Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan as comparative cases, it argues that energy vulnerability is not determined by import dependence alone, but by how dependence interacts with buffering capacity, demand rigidity, reserve accessibility, cost pressure, and system structure. The analysis identifies three divergent pathways toward instability: slow compression in Japan, accelerated compression in South Korea, and rapid trigger exposure in Taiwan.
Files
| Name | Type | |
|---|---|---|
| Energy Endurance Under Systemic Shock Divergent Survival Pathways in East Asia During the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict.pdf Full-text PDF of the policy brief | application/pdf | Download |
Keywords
- energy security
- energy endurance
- Energy Endurance & Survival Index
- EESI
- High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium
- HPSE
- Loss-of-Control Threshold
- LoCT
- systemic shock
- systemic risk
- East Asia
- Japan
- South Korea
- Taiwan
- LNG
- oil reserves
- strategic petroleum reserves
- energy import dependence
- buffer depletion
- demand rigidity
- cost pressure
- U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict
- maritime risk
- geopolitical disruption
- strategic resilience
- public policy
- EPINOVA
Subjects
- Energy security
- International relations
- Public policy
- Strategic studies
- Systemic risk
- Strategic resilience
- East Asian security
- Energy policy
- Geopolitical risk
- Networked conflict
- Systems analysis
- Crisis management
- Maritime security
- Critical infrastructure
- Policy diagnostics
Recommended citation
Wu, Shaoyuan (2026), Energy Endurance Under Systemic Shock: Divergent Survival Pathways in East Asia During the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict, Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–41, Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2026). Energy endurance under systemic shock: Divergent survival pathways in East Asia during the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–41). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| EPINOVA policy brief number | EPINOVA–2026–PB–41 | Policy brief number printed in the PDF |
| EPINOVA publication ID | EPINOVA-PB-2026-041 | Repository and metadata identifier |
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.19770272 | Previous Zenodo DOI reserved or assigned before Crossref migration; retained for reconciliation |
| URL | https://publications.epinova.org/epinova-pb-2026-041/ | Publication landing page intended for Crossref DOI resolution |
| URL | https://epinova.org/policy-brief-1 | Official EPINOVA policy brief page |
| File name | Energy Endurance Under Systemic Shock Divergent Survival Pathways in East Asia During the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict.pdf | Source PDF file name |
| Short title | Energy Endurance Under Systemic Shock | Short form of the policy brief title |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Related EPINOVA policy brief defining and applying the HPSE framework | 10.5281/zenodo.19645873 | ||
| Related EPINOVA working paper defining the Loss-of-Control Threshold framework | 10.5281/zenodo.19139977 | ||
| Series page for EPINOVA policy briefs | https://epinova.org/policy-brief-1 | ||
| Supplementary repository and structural archive | https://github.com/EPINOVALLC/EPINOVA-Research |
References
- {'citation': 'Worldometer. (2026). Japan Natural Gas.', 'type': 'Data source', 'url': 'https://www.worldometers.info/zh/天然气/日本-天然气/'}
- {'citation': 'Worldometer. (2026). Japan Oil.', 'type': 'Data source', 'url': 'https://www.worldometers.info/zh/石油/日本-石油/'}
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- {'citation': 'Worldometer. (2026). Taiwan Natural Gas.', 'type': 'Data source', 'url': 'https://www.worldometers.info/zh/天然气/台湾-天然气/'}
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- {'citation': 'Wu, Shaoyuan. (2026). Escalation Without Collapse: High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict, Days 1–50. Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–35. Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC.', 'type': 'Related EPINOVA policy brief', 'url': 'https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19645873'}
- {'citation': 'Wu, Shaoyuan. (2026). A Systemic Theory of Escalation and the Loss-of-Control Threshold in Networked Conflict (EPINOVA Working Paper No. EPINOVA–WP–F–2026–09). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC.', 'type': 'Related EPINOVA working paper', 'url': 'https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19139977'}