Political Credit Index (PCI)
Measuring Political Credibility as Strategic Intangible Capital
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This Index Methodology Paper introduces the Political Credit Index (PCI), a proposed framework for measuring political credibility as strategic intangible capital. It defines political credit, develops a seven-dimensional indicator architecture, provides normalization and weighting procedures, introduces valuation channels, proposes a dynamic model, and outlines applications in governance analysis, crisis monitoring, sovereign-risk assessment, alliance credibility evaluation, and institutional self-assessment.
Abstract
This Index Methodology Paper presents the foundational methodology for the Political Credit Index (PCI), a proposed framework for measuring political credibility as strategic intangible capital. The paper argues that political credit is the accumulated credibility that allows political actors to convert future commitments into present cooperation. It distinguishes political credit from reputation, legitimacy, popularity, trust, and formal authority, and develops a seven-dimensional indicator architecture covering commitment fulfillment, policy stability, institutional procedure, social trust, distributive fairness, external commitment credibility, and narrative consistency. The paper further introduces normalization and weighting methods, scenario-specific weighting templates, potential data sources and coding strategies, political-credit valuation channels, a dynamic credit-stock model, a classification and benchmarking framework, and a scenario-based illustrative calculation. Version 1.0 is presented as a foundational release intended to establish the conceptual and methodological architecture of the PCI rather than to provide a finalized empirical dataset or country ranking.
Files
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Keywords
- Political Credit Index
- PCI
- political credit
- political credibility
- strategic intangible capital
- credibility capital
- governance cost
- risk premium
- crisis resilience
- commitment fulfillment
- policy stability
- institutional procedure
- social trust
- distributive fairness
- external commitment credibility
- narrative consistency
- political risk
- sovereign risk
- alliance credibility
- deterrence credibility
- governance indicators
- composite index
- MCCM
- Political Credit Reserve
- EPINOVA
Subjects
- Political science
- Public policy
- Governance measurement
- International relations
- Political risk analysis
- Sovereign-risk assessment
- Crisis monitoring
- Strategic studies
- Institutional analysis
- Composite indicators
- AI-assisted policy analysis
Recommended citation
Wu, S. (2026). Political Credit Index (PCI): Measuring political credibility as strategic intangible capital (Index Methodology Paper Version 1.0, EPINOVA-IMP-2026-01). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://publications.epinova.org/epinova-imp-2026-01/. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2026). Political Credit Index (PCI): Measuring political credibility as strategic intangible capital (Index Methodology Paper Version 1.0, EPINOVA-IMP-2026-01). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://publications.epinova.org/epinova-imp-2026-01/. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| URL | https://publications.epinova.org/epinova-imp-2026-01/ | EPINOVA publication landing page |
| EPINOVA index methodology paper number | EPINOVA-IMP-2026-01 | Index methodology paper number printed in the PDF |
| File name | Political Credit Index (PCI) Measuring Political Credibility as Strategic Intangible Capital.pdf | Source PDF file name |
| Short title | Political Credit Index | Short form of the index methodology paper title |
| Acronym | PCI | Acronym for Political Credit Index |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| IsPartOf | https://publications.epinova.org/epinova-imp-2026-01/ | Publication landing page | EPINOVA landing page for this Index Methodology Paper |
| IsSupplementedBy | https://github.com/EPINOVALLC/EPINOVA-Research | Repository | Supplementary repository and structural archive |
| References | https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887120000246 | Journal article | Jervis, Yarhi-Milo, and Casler (2021) on reputation and credibility in international security |
| References | https://doi.org/10.25522/manifesto.mpds.2025a | Dataset | Manifesto Data Collection, version 2025a |
| References | https://doi.org/10.1787/9a20554b-en | Report | OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions: 2024 Results |
| References | https://doi.org/10.1787/0efd0bcd-en | Report | OECD Government at a Glance 2025 |
References
- Fund for Peace. (n.d.-a). Fragile States Index: Indicators. Fragile States Index. Retrieved May 8, 2026, from https://fragilestatesindex.org/indicators/
- Fund for Peace. (n.d.-b). Fragile States Index: Methodology. Fragile States Index. Retrieved May 6, 2026, from https://fragilestatesindex.org/methodology/
- Gallup. (n.d.). Confidence in institutions. Gallup Historical Trends. Retrieved May 8, 2026, from https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/confidence-institutions.aspx
- Jervis, R., Yarhi-Milo, K., & Casler, D. (2021). Redefining the debate over reputation and credibility in international security: Promises and limits of new scholarship. World Politics, 73(1), 167-203. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887120000246
- Lehmann, P., Franzmann, S., Al-Gaddooa, D., Burst, T., Ivanusch, C., Regel, S., Riethmüller, F., Volkens, A., Weßels, B., & Zehnter, L. (2025). The Manifesto Data Collection: Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR), version 2025a. Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung / Institut für Demokratieforschung. https://doi.org/10.25522/manifesto.mpds.2025a
- Nord, M., Good God, A., & Lindberg, S. I. (2026). Democracy report 2026: Unraveling the democratic era? V-Dem Institute. https://www.v-dem.net/documents/75/V-Dem_Institute_Democracy_Report_2026_lowres.pdf
- OECD. (2024). OECD survey on drivers of trust in public institutions: 2024 results. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9a20554b-en
- OECD. (2025). Government at a glance 2025. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/0efd0bcd-en
- Pew Research Center. (2025, December 4). Public trust in government: 1958-2025. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/12/04/public-trust-in-government-1958-2025/
- World Bank. (2025a). Worldwide Governance Indicators. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators
- World Bank. (2025b). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: 2025 methodology revision. https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/sites/govindicators/doc/The%20Worldwide%20Governance%20Indicators%202025%20Methodology%20Revision.pdf
- World Justice Project. (2025). WJP Rule of Law Index 2025. https://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index/