Who Loses Control First?
Threshold Competition in the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This working paper analyzes the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict as a form of threshold competition rather than a conventional contest for decisive military victory. It introduces the loss-of-control threshold (LoCT) as an analytical lens for assessing how cumulative military, fiscal, political, economic, informational, and legitimacy pressures can push actors beyond their capacity to regulate escalation. The paper compares three actor-specific pathways: U.S. fiscal–strategic overextension, Israeli escalation lock-in, and Iran's legitimacy–retaliation loop.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict as a form of threshold competition rather than a contest for decisive military victory. It introduces the concept of the loss-of-control threshold (LoCT) to explain how actors lose the ability to regulate escalation under cumulative systemic pressure. The analysis identifies three distinct pathways: U.S. fiscal–strategic overextension, Israeli escalation lock-in, and Iran’s legitimacy–retaliation loop. The paper argues that the key variable in contemporary conflict is not battlefield superiority, but the ability to delay crossing actor-specific thresholds of uncontrollability.
Files
| Name | Type | |
|---|---|---|
| Who Loses Control First.pdf Full-text PDF of the working paper | application/pdf | Download |
Keywords
- loss-of-control threshold
- LoCT
- threshold competition
- systemic warfare
- escalation dynamics
- cost-imposition strategy
- network warfare
- U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict
- cross-domain pressure
- strategic resilience
- fiscal–strategic overextension
- escalation lock-in
- legitimacy–retaliation loop
- systemic pressure
- Middle East conflict
- AI-mediated strategic risk
- EPINOVA Working Paper F-Series
Subjects
- Strategic Studies
- International Security
- Escalation Dynamics
- Systemic Warfare
- Threshold Competition
- Middle East Conflict
- U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict
- Network Warfare
- Cost-Imposition Strategy
- Strategic Resilience
- Conflict Analysis
- AI-Mediated Strategic Risk
Recommended citation
Wu, Shaoyuan. (2026). Who loses control first? Threshold competition in the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict (EPINOVA Working Paper No. EPINOVA–WP–F–2026–08). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19118195. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2026). Who loses control first? Threshold competition in the 2026 U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict (EPINOVA Working Paper No. EPINOVA–WP–F–2026–08). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19118195. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| EPINOVA Working Paper Number | EPINOVA–WP–F–2026–08 | Working paper number shown in the PDF |
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.19118195 | Zenodo/DataCite DOI shown in the PDF recommended citation |
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.19118194 | Earlier DOI value from ORCID-derived metadata; retained for reconciliation |
| ORCID put-code | 209031462 | ORCID Public API record identifier from early metadata |
| File name | Who Loses Control First.pdf | Source PDF file name |
| Short citation | Wu (2026), Who Loses Control First?, EPINOVA Working Paper F–2026–08 | Short citation shown or implied by the EPINOVA working paper format |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Related EPINOVA Working Paper F-Series work on network warfare and operational logic in the same conflict environment | 10.5281/zenodo.18972327 | ||
| Related EPINOVA Working Paper F-Series work defining systemic warfare and the SPI logic used in this paper | 10.5281/zenodo.19078936 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on platform nodes and narrative competition referenced in the paper | 10.5281/zenodo.19027188 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on distributed command and post-nodal warfare referenced in the paper | 10.5281/zenodo.19104090 |
References
- Associated Press. (2026, March 17). Iran, Iraq, U.S., Israel tensions escalate amid regional conflict. https://apnews.com/article/iran-iraq-us-israel-trump-march-17-2026-35d15d7cbcfa65fd7d180c28d38e7f31
- Biddle, S. (2004). Military power: Explaining victory and defeat in modern battle. Princeton University Press.
- Brands, H. (2022). The twilight struggle: What the Cold War teaches us about great-power rivalry today. Yale University Press.
- Jervis, R. (1976). Perception and misperception in international politics. Princeton University Press.
- Kahn, H. (1965). On escalation: Metaphors and scenarios. Praeger.
- Reuters. (2026a, March 18). Pentagon seeks more than $200 billion budget request for Iran war. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-seeks-more-than-200-billion-budget-request-iran-war-washington-post-2026-03-18/
- Reuters. (2026b, March 18). U.S. weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-weighs-military-reinforcements-iran-war-enters-possible-new-phase-2026-03-18/
- Reuters. (2026c, March 17). Trump criticises allies over Hormuz request amid Iran-Israel tensions. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-criticises-allies-over-rejection-hormuz-request-iran-israel-trade-2026-03-17/
- Reuters. (2026d, March 18). Israel kills Iranian security chief Ali Larijani in airstrike. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/IRAN-CRISIS/MAPS/znpnmelervl/
- Schelling, T. C. (1966). Arms and influence. Yale University Press.
- Tabatabai, A. M. (2020). No confrontation: Iran’s national security strategy. Oxford University Press.
- The Guardian. (2026, March 18). Trump, Iran war, and domestic political tensions in the U.S. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/mar/18/donald-trump-iran-war-markwayne-mullin-security-immigration-intelligence-federal-reserve-interest-rates-latest-news-updates
- Wu, S. (2026a). Industrial War and Network War: Operational logics in the Russia–Ukraine War and the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict (EPINOVA Working Paper No. EPINOVA–WP–F–2026–06). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18972327
- Wu, S. (2026b). Systemic Warfare in the Networked Age: Operational systems, information competition, and cumulative pressure (EPINOVA Working Paper No. EPINOVA–WP–F–2026–07). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19078936
- Wu, S. (2026c). Terminal platform nodes and narrative competition in the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–13). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19027188
- Wu, S. (2026d). Post-nodal warfare: Will distributed AI command replace human leadership in high-intensity conflict? (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–14). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19104090