Published 2026-10-11 | Version v1.0
Policy BriefOpenPublished

ASEAN in the Emerging AI Power Order

Distributed National Nodes, Overlapping Technological Systems, and Strategic Autonomy

Description

This policy brief examines ASEAN’s place in the emerging AI power order as a distributed regional coordination and overlap environment rather than a unified AI power. It distinguishes AI National Power at the member-state level, AI Boundary Power at specific controller–target–interface relations, Boundary Autonomy as the ability to preserve functions through credible alternatives, and Systemic Influence as a separate outcome requiring persistent, sufficiently broad, and credibly attributable effects. The brief compares the differentiated functional roles of ASEAN’s eleven members, analyzes four regional mechanisms—aggregation, interoperability, option-set expansion, and mediation—and examines overlap among U.S., Chinese, domestic, Japanese, Korean, European, Indian, and Gulf-linked technological systems. A diagnostic Malaysia–Singapore advanced-compute case illustrates how locally held legal and regulatory interfaces can become strategically consequential without creating a unified ASEAN enforcement regime. The brief concludes that ASEAN’s strategic relevance lies in interoperable pluralism: preserving multiple workable connections, strengthening nationally controlled interfaces, and converting coordination and investment into operational interoperability, credible alternatives, and durable local capability.

Abstract

Southeast Asia is often portrayed as a contested space between U.S. and Chinese artificial-intelligence ecosystems. This brief argues that ASEAN is best understood as a distributed regional coordination and overlap environment. AI National Power remains attributable to member-state systems and their usable, mobilizable functions. AI Boundary Power is relational; Boundary Autonomy describes a target's credible ability to switch, substitute, bypass, or internalize at an interface; and Systemic Influence requires a separate showing of persistent, sufficiently broad, credibly attributable effects. Four mechanisms warrant attention: aggregation of complementary nodes, interoperability among systems, expansion of credible national options, and mediation across external technology and governance agendas. The immediate policy opportunity is interoperable pluralism: preserving multiple workable connections, securing nationally controlled interfaces, and converting investments into capabilities that can operate across organizational and technological boundaries.

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Keywords

  • ASEAN
  • AI power order
  • AI National Power
  • AI Boundary Power
  • Boundary Autonomy
  • Systemic Influence
  • strategic autonomy
  • interoperable pluralism
  • regional coordination
  • technological overlap
  • Southeast Asia
  • advanced compute
  • cloud infrastructure
  • AI governance
  • option-set expansion
  • interoperability
  • regional mediation
  • EPINOVA

Subjects

  • AI governance
  • Geopolitics of AI
  • Southeast Asia
  • ASEAN
  • Strategic autonomy
  • Technology policy
  • Cloud infrastructure
  • Semiconductor governance
  • Digital governance
  • Regional institutions
  • International security
  • Public policy

Recommended citation

Wu, S. (2026). ASEAN in the Emerging AI Power Order: Distributed National Nodes, Overlapping Technological Systems, and Strategic Autonomy (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–73). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.67037/epinova.pb.2026.073

APA citation

Wu, S. (2026). ASEAN in the emerging AI power order: Distributed national nodes, overlapping technological systems, and strategic autonomy. EPINOVA Policy Brief Series, EPINOVA-PB-2026-073. Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.67037/epinova.pb.2026.073.

Alternate identifiers

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