Dynamic Threshold Positioning in U.S.–China Competition
A Phase-Resolved Assessment of Structural Resilience and LoCT Distance
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This policy brief applies an MCCM-based dynamic threshold positioning framework to U.S.–China competition, arguing that the decisive variable is not aggregate capability but each system’s distance from the loss-of-control threshold (LoCT) under sustained multi-domain pressure.
Abstract
This brief examines U.S.–China competition through the lens of dynamic threshold positioning, using an MCCM-based analytical framework. Rather than comparing aggregate power, it evaluates each system’s distance to the loss-of-control threshold (LoCT) under sustained multi-domain pressure. The analysis finds that the United States operates within a high-pressure, multi-theater configuration characterized by increasing systemic exposure and coupling, resulting in a progressive compression of LoCT distance. China, by contrast, maintains a lower-exposure, controlled configuration that preserves a more stable threshold buffer. The central implication is that strategic outcomes depend less on relative strength than on relative proximity to systemic breakdown. In this context, the decisive variable is not which actor advances faster, but which system approaches the threshold first.
Files
| Name | Type | |
|---|---|---|
| Dynamic Threshold Positioning in U.S.–China Competition A Phase-Resolved Assessment of Structural Resilience and LoCT Distance.pdf Full-text PDF of the policy brief | application/pdf | Download |
Keywords
- U.S.–China competition
- dynamic threshold positioning
- LoCT
- loss-of-control threshold
- MCCM
- systemic resilience
- structural resilience
- threshold proximity
- great-power competition
- multi-domain pressure
- systemic stress
- transmission and coupling
- adaptive capacity
- high-pressure systemic equilibrium
- HPSE
- controlled exposure configuration
- alliance coordination costs
- cross-domain transmission
- strategic risk
- systemic fragility
- threshold management
- EPINOVA
Subjects
- Strategic studies
- International relations
- U.S.–China relations
- Great-power competition
- Security studies
- Systems analysis
- Risk governance
- Escalation dynamics
- Geopolitics
- Threshold analysis
- Conflict modeling
- Policy analysis
- AI-enabled strategic analysis
- Global security governance
Recommended citation
Wu, Shaoyuan (2026), Dynamic Threshold Positioning in U.S.–China Competition: A Phase-Resolved Assessment of Structural Resilience and LoCT Distance, Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–40, Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19712135. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2026). Dynamic threshold positioning in U.S.–China competition: A phase-resolved assessment of structural resilience and LoCT distance (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–40). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19712135. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.19712135 | Zenodo/DataCite DOI stated in the PDF recommended citation |
| ORCID put-code | 212688561 | ORCID Public API record identifier from early metadata |
| EPINOVA policy brief number | EPINOVA–2026–PB–40 | Policy brief number printed in the PDF |
| File name | Dynamic Threshold Positioning in U.S.–China Competition A Phase-Resolved Assessment of Structural Resilience and LoCT Distance.pdf | Source PDF file name |
| Short title | Dynamic Threshold Positioning in U.S.–China Competition | Short form of the policy brief title |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Related EPINOVA policy brief developing the MCCM framework for systemic escalation assessment | 10.5281/zenodo.19550886 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief applying MCCM to China’s structural exposure and threshold-coupling risk | 10.5281/zenodo.19633889 | ||
| Related EPINOVA working paper developing the LoCT concept for networked conflict | 10.5281/zenodo.19139977 |
References
No references listed.