Who Is Ready Under Renewed Conflict?
A Capability–Sustainability Assessment of the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This policy brief assesses comparative readiness in the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict through a capability–sustainability framework. It argues that the United States is best positioned for short-duration, high-intensity operations; Iran is structurally better positioned for prolonged cost-imposition conflict; and Israel is operationally effective but constrained by limited strategic depth, multi-front exposure, and escalation lock-in.
Abstract
In the event of renewed hostilities, the United States, Israel, and Iran would enter the conflict with distinct readiness profiles across two core dimensions: immediate military capability and long-term sustainability under systemic pressure. The United States retains decisive short-term combat readiness and the ability to initiate and dominate high-intensity, multi-domain operations. Iran is structurally better positioned for protracted conflict through cost-imposition strategies, distributed systems, and lower-cost offensive capabilities. Israel demonstrates high operational effectiveness but limited sustainability because of geography, force structure, and multi-front exposure. The central implication is that readiness is multidimensional rather than absolute: actors are prepared for different types of conflict, not the same one.
Files
| Name | Type | |
|---|---|---|
| Who Is Ready Under Renewed Conflict A Capability–Sustainability Assessment of the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict.pdf Full-text PDF of the policy brief | application/pdf | Download |
Keywords
- U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict
- Capability readiness
- Sustainability readiness
- Readiness assessment
- Systemic pressure
- Cost-imposition strategy
- Escalation control
- Loss-of-Control Threshold
- LoCT
- Threshold competition
- Protracted conflict
- Short-duration conflict
- Military sustainability
- Strategic endurance
- Escalation lock-in
- Multi-domain operations
- Information warfare
- Networked conflict
- Strategic competition
- Middle East security
- EPINOVA
Subjects
- Strategic studies
- International security
- Military affairs
- Conflict analysis
- Middle East security
- Escalation dynamics
- Systems analysis
- Defense policy
- Geopolitics
- Networked conflict
- Crisis stability
- Policy analysis
- Security governance
Recommended citation
Wu, Shaoyuan (2026), Who Is Ready Under Renewed Conflict? A Capability–Sustainability Assessment of the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict, Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–36, Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19665929. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2026). Who is ready under renewed conflict? A capability–sustainability assessment of the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–36). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19665929. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.19665929 | Zenodo/DataCite DOI stated in the PDF recommended citation |
| ORCID put-code | 212275412 | ORCID Public API record identifier from early metadata |
| EPINOVA policy brief number | EPINOVA–2026–PB–36 | Policy brief number printed in the PDF |
| File name | Who Is Ready Under Renewed Conflict A Capability–Sustainability Assessment of the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict.pdf | Source PDF file name |
| Short title | Who Is Ready Under Renewed Conflict? | Short form of the policy brief title |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on systemic pressure and high-pressure equilibrium in the same conflict system | 10.5281/zenodo.19645873 | ||
| Related EPINOVA working paper on threshold competition and Loss-of-Control Threshold dynamics | 10.5281/zenodo.19118195 | ||
| Related EPINOVA working paper providing broader theoretical context for LoCT analysis | 10.5281/zenodo.19139977 |
References
No references listed.