Divergent War Aims
The U.S., Israel, and the Strategic Logic of Divergence in the Iran Conflict
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This policy brief analyzes strategic divergence between the United States and Israel in the Iran conflict. It argues that the two actors remain operationally aligned but differ in war aims, time horizons, escalation thresholds, and definitions of success, while Iran pursues cost imposition to exploit coalition asymmetry over time.
Abstract
The United States and Israel are often treated as strategically aligned in confronting Iran, but their war aims diverge in structure, time horizon, and acceptable levels of escalation. The United States prioritizes control sustainability: applying sustained pressure while maintaining escalation control, preserving coalition cohesion, and avoiding strategic overextension. Israel prioritizes deterrence restoration through coercive credibility, even at higher escalation risk. Iran’s strategy is best understood as cost imposition under asymmetry, designed to exploit divergence within the opposing coalition by amplifying differences in tempo, cost tolerance, and strategic objectives. The resulting pattern is not alliance breakdown, but strategic asymmetry within the coalition, in which continued operational coordination masks increasingly divergent strategic logics.
Files
| Name | Type | |
|---|---|---|
| Divergent War Aims.pdf Full-text PDF of the policy brief | application/pdf | Download |
Keywords
- U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict
- Iran conflict
- Divergent war aims
- Strategic divergence
- Coalition asymmetry
- Alliance management
- Control sustainability
- Coercive credibility
- Deterrence restoration
- Cost imposition
- Tempo divergence
- Threshold divergence
- Escalation control
- Escalation thresholds
- Coalition strategy
- Military coordination
- Strategic logic
- Iran strategy
- U.S. strategy
- Israeli strategy
- MCCM
- EPINOVA
Subjects
- Strategic studies
- International security
- Middle East security
- U.S. foreign policy
- Israel security policy
- Iran strategy
- Deterrence theory
- Alliance politics
- Coalition warfare
- Escalation management
- Cost-imposition strategy
- Crisis stability
- Conflict analysis
- Geopolitics
- Security governance
Recommended citation
Wu, Shaoyuan (2026), Divergent War Aims: The U.S., Israel, and the Strategic Logic of Divergence in the Iran Conflict, Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–17, Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19223653. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2026). Divergent war aims: The U.S., Israel, and the strategic logic of divergence in the Iran conflict (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–17). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19223653. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.19223653 | Zenodo/DataCite DOI stated in the PDF recommended citation |
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.19223652 | Earlier DOI from ORCID-derived metadata record retained for reconciliation |
| ORCID put-code | 209674082 | ORCID Public API record identifier from early metadata |
| EPINOVA policy brief number | EPINOVA–2026–PB–17 | Policy brief number printed in the PDF |
| File name | Divergent War Aims.pdf | Source PDF file name from early metadata and uploaded file |
| Short title | Divergent War Aims | Short form of the policy brief title |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Related EPINOVA policy brief developing the cost-imposition logic referenced in the analysis of Iran’s strategy. | 10.5281/zenodo.19210002 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief assessing U.S. operational superiority, cost burdens, and loss-of-control threshold dynamics. | 10.5281/zenodo.19138942 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief assessing early battlefield dynamics, threshold events, and next-phase risks. | 10.5281/zenodo.18896560 |
References
No references listed.