From Detection to Depletion
Sustainability Constraints in Counter-Drone Defense
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This policy brief synthesizes the findings of EPINOVA-2025-01-RR into a policy-facing assessment of counter-drone defense sustainability. It argues that air defense in the Russia-Ukraine war is not failing primarily because drones cannot be intercepted, but because defense architectures struggle to remain economically and operationally sustainable under continuous low-cost saturation. The brief reframes counter-UAS evaluation from shoot-down ratios toward mission preservation, cost per loss avoided, and endurance under stress.
Abstract
In the Russia-Ukraine war, air defense is not failing because drones cannot be intercepted, but because defenses struggle to remain economically and operationally sustainable under continuous saturation. Metrics focused on shoot-down rates systematically overstate effectiveness and underestimate structural exhaustion. Drawing on a Minimum Viable, Auditable (MVA) framework and observations from 2023-2025, this policy brief argues that cost per loss avoided, composite cost-loss indicators, and key asset preservation should guide counter-drone defense planning. It concludes that future air-defense effectiveness will be defined by sustainability and mission preservation rather than interception counts alone.
Files
| Name | Type | |
|---|---|---|
| From Detection to Depletion Sustainability Constraints in Counter-Drone Defense.pdf Full-text PDF of the policy brief | application/pdf | Download |
Keywords
- Counter-drone defense
- Counter-UAS
- Drone warfare
- Russia-Ukraine war
- Air defense sustainability
- Saturation attacks
- Cost per Loss Avoided
- CPLA
- Composite Cost-Loss Indicator
- CER*
- Key Asset Preservation Score
- KAPS
- Minimum Viable Auditable framework
- MVA framework
- Mission-based defense
- Low-cost terminal layers
- Magazine depletion
- Force-structure misalignment
- AI-enabled warfare
- Global security governance
- EPINOVA
Subjects
- Defense policy
- Counter-UAS
- Air defense
- Drone warfare
- Strategic studies
- Military technology
- AI-enabled warfare
- Security governance
- Russia-Ukraine War
- Operational sustainability
- Cost-exchange analysis
- Mission resilience
Recommended citation
Wu, S. (2025). From Detection to Depletion: Sustainability Constraints in Counter-Drone Defense (Policy Brief). EPINOVA-2025-01-PB. Global AI Governance Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18037881. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2025). From detection to depletion: Sustainability constraints in counter-drone defense (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA-2025-01-PB). Global AI Governance Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18037881. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.18037881 | Zenodo/DataCite DOI stated in the PDF and early ORCID-derived metadata record |
| ORCID put-code | 201017414 | ORCID Public API record identifier from early metadata |
| EPINOVA policy brief number | EPINOVA–2025–01–PB | Policy brief number printed in the PDF |
| File name | From Detection to Depletion Sustainability Constraints in Counter-Drone Defense.pdf | Source PDF file name |
| Short title | From Detection to Depletion | Short form of the policy brief title |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Source research report on which this policy brief is based | 10.5281/zenodo.18036790 | ||
| Related EPINOVA working paper extending the MVA framework to fiber-optic UAS and counter-UAS assessment | 10.5281/zenodo.18090017 |
References
No references listed.